This is US History, I see the globe right there!

"What Jefferson was saying was, Hey! You know, we left this England place 'cause it was bogus; so if we don't get some cool rules ourselves - pronto - we'll just be bogus too! Get it?"

~Jeff Spicoli : Fast Times at Ridgemont High

Electoral politics is what you get when the sciences of math and human psychology  get drunk in a bar and go at it like stray cats in the alley behind the dumpster.  The outcome is unpredictable and it's always loud.  

 But most non-Presidential elections are actually pretty boring.  While the exact size and shape of a voting demographic might be hard to nail down, the nature of those demographics is usually pretty easy to grasp.   Old people almost always vote for the status quo.  Young people will vote for the candidate or issue that seems least owned by the establishment.  Gender lines can get more blurry, but even there you can often make some fairly accurate predictions about where a gender might vote on an issue.  Even more boring is the outcome of the election.  Candidate X campaigned on X platform and is a wholly owned subsidiary of a Mega-Corps A, B, and C.  His voting record and legislative proposals are not going to surprise anyone.  

 All of which is a long way of justifying my interest in Proposition 19, which is better known as the Pot Legalization law outside of California.  Proposition 19 is pretty fascinating from an electoral perspective.  At first blush, you might think, "Stoners and young people are the only ones voting for this, old people and everyone else is voting against it."  But the prospect of legal marijuana in California seems to have made for some strange bedfellows.  So, yes, of course the law is going to live or die by the youth vote.  But you might be surprised to know that the it's not getting much support from the hardcore stoner crowd who think the law is too restrictive and that the tax and license requirements will hurt the currently illegal businesses (more so than being illegal does, apparently!).  Nor is it facing particularly stiff opposition by the elderly.  Many elderly have or know someone who has a painful illness for which marijuana could be an important prescribed medicine.  Even traditional party lines have been blurred, with some fiscal conservatives and libertarians backing the proposition because of the money the state could make on the taxation of marijuana. 

 The really cool thing about Proposition 19, should it pass, is what a fantastic constitutional clusterfuck it would create at nearly every level of government.  Each county would be required to determine its own licensing laws, leaving the potential for huge discrepancies in enforcement over the space of a few miles.  At the city level, enforcement of the new laws is likely going to poorly defined and executed as police forces adjust to the sudden shift.  At the state level, the biggest issue will be what to do with a judicial system that has incarcerated thousands and fined millions for the possession of a plant that is suddenly legal.  Finally, at the Federal level, at which this law has no effect, how do you continue to wage your totally ineffective but economically entrenched War on Drugs without getting into a massive state's rights battle?  

 I would be extremely happy for Prop. 19 to pass, and I have a pretty strong (and admittedly somewhat irrational) distaste for marijuana.  I'd support the law because it would force a national discussion,--I would hope--of our utterly idiotic and poorly executed War on Drugs.  I'd support the law because there's no evidence, anywhere, that supports the idea that legalization would result in the end of civilization.  I'd support the law because watching Republicans attempt to explain why Federal laws need to be enforced against the will of the State on the 150th anniversary of the start of the Civil War,  would make for some great television.

 Unfortunately, Prop 19 probably won't pass in California tomorrow.  In a midterm election the youth vote is unlikely to turn it in large enough numbers to support it.  But I would put good money down that at this time two years from now California, and maybe others, will have similar laws on their ballots, and that they'll have an excellent chance of passing.  And they'll be just as much fun to watch then.